...I'm okay with being REALITY-based.

Friday, August 29, 2003
      ( 11:23 AM )
End of Summer Election Blues

I have to confess that I don't like what I'm hearing about the rumors of Hillary Clinton considering a run for 2004. DKos and others have noted that it could be about the money...and about Clark. Clark has further delayed his announcement, most likely waiting to see the money number for Q3. And Gephardt is holding his breath hoping that he'll get the SEIU and then the AFL/CIO in October.

I'm no political genius or strategist, but I find common sense can often help sort through confusing times such as these. On the HRC front: she would be crazy to enter the race for 2004 if she has any care for the Dems winning. While it looks now that Bush is indeed beatable, it can't be by her. She is still too much of a polarizing figure, it is still too close to the "Clinton era" for her to have any independent self-identity in this world. If anything would mobilize on-the-fence Republicans, even moderates, it would be her in the race, and they wouldn't be mobilized against Bush as they are beginning to show signs of now. It would be folly indeed, and I hope that all the Democrat powers-that-be who are worth any weight in wanting a Dem victory in 2004 will advise her against it. So far she protests the rumors. Let's hope she sticks with that. She's in a much better position years from now, when the sting has worn off, when Dems have revived the country a bit.

As for the General, if he is waiting to see whether he could actually be a contender for the nomination, he should quit all the suspense. He can't get the nomination. But I don't think that should keep him from entering the primary races - he makes a good showing, shows he can go through the campaign nightmares, get lots of recognition and increased popularity, and he sets himself for the top VP slot. This is nothing to slouch at - VP is only one breath...

The question of Dean keeping up his momentum is going to be a big one through this fall. I think that the monthly meet-ups will do a lot to help this since it provides a regular, monthly way to guage the levels of interest in his campaign and possible presidency. His fundraising for Q3 will get him a lot more publicity as he probably will break Clinton's record in October. This will set him up nicely for the holidays and the beginning of the actual voting. Then it will most likely all be over within a couple of months. So the whole line about him "peaking too early" does not make sense - now is when he needs to be getting the kind of attention he is because now is when the fundraising ability comes to light, now is when the unions make their choices and now is when people are done with summer vacation adn ready to start thinking about stuff again. Hopefully that stuff includes how to get Bush out of the white house in a year.

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